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  • Tom68
    replied
    Originally posted by 380EXCQLD View Post

    Apart from filling out the odd covid form life has been back to normal for months.
    Not living in a stinking metropolis has definitely helped
    Metropolis is a breeze (for me at least) on the jack Hammer in King st this arvo, no one getting in the way.

    Working in the CBD's Little streets for the rest of the week, setting up for Alfresco diners to dine with the garbage trucks and beat up delivery vans, who'd have thought it'd be more hygienic to eat outside in the gutters than in a restaurant.

    Don't know who's going to use all these gutter stalls, no tourists around for a long time to come, and Dan won't be encouraging City people to work whilst he can leach off the Federal Government.



    Leave a comment:


  • normanator27
    replied
    Originally posted by OldManRiver View Post
    Yes, I will (and can) drink to that.
    I'm hearing you gents. The big talk here today is that the QLD/NSW bubble has extended down to my area. Makes no difference to me, life just goes on

    Leave a comment:


  • OldManRiver
    replied
    Originally posted by 380EXCQLD View Post
    Not living in a stinking metropolis has definitely helped
    Yes, I will (and can) drink to that.

    Leave a comment:


  • 380EXCQLD
    replied
    Originally posted by OldManRiver View Post
    2020 hindsight. Not saying its wrong, or unworthy. Just saying it is nowhere near as helpful as a little forethought.

    and Queensland
    Apart from filling out the odd covid form life has been back to normal for months.
    Not living in a stinking metropolis has definitely helped

    Leave a comment:


  • OldManRiver
    replied
    Originally posted by pk View Post
    - I don’t think it can already be ruled out that an asteroid will strike the MCG at some stage or that Dan Andrew may tell the truth ?
    Coronavirus: Sweden ‘has beaten coronavirus with herd immunity’
    And it also can't be ruled out that the above statement is a tad premature.
    Some evidence points that way ATM - that is all.

    Leave a comment:


  • pk
    replied
    Originally posted by OldManRiver View Post
    “I don’t think it can already be ruled out that Sweden will also have a flare-up,” said Allan Randrup Thomsen
    - I don’t think it can already be ruled out that an asteroid will strike the MCG at some stage or that Dan Andrew may tell the truth ?

    Leave a comment:


  • OldManRiver
    replied
    “I don’t think it can already be ruled out that Sweden will also have a flare-up,” said Allan Randrup Thomsen

    Leave a comment:


  • pk
    replied
    Some food for thought . . .



    Coronavirus: Sweden ‘has beaten coronavirus with herd immunity’


    People walk on Stranvagen in Stockholm. Picture: AFP.

    Evidence is mounting that Sweden has beaten the coronavirus with herd immunity rather than a lockdown, according to a renowned expert on the spread of disease.

    Sweden’s infection rate has remained low and stable at a time when other European countries are facing a strong resurgence.

    In Britain there are 69 cases per 100,000 people compared with 28 per 100,000 in Sweden, which did not implement strict lockdown measures in the northern spring.
    The infection rate in France is almost seven times higher than in Sweden, and in Spain ten times higher.


    Kim Sneppen, professor of biocomplexity at Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, told the Politiken newspaper: “There is some evidence that the Swedes have built up a degree of immunity to the virus which, along with what else they are doing to stop the spread, is enough to control the disease.”

    A recent study by the University of Stockholm has suggested that infection in 43 per cent of the population could be sufficient for herd immunity.

    Others warn that it is too early to tell. “I don’t think it can already be ruled out that Sweden will also have a flare-up,” said Allan Randrup Thomsen, professor of virology at Aarhus University.

    Sweden built its response around voluntary social distancing. Its economy shrank by 9 per cent in the first months of the pandemic, compared with 20 per cent in Britain.

    Leave a comment:


  • pk
    replied
    Victoria reported 28 new covid cases on Tuesday.

    The State’s total number of cases since the pandemic began is 20,076

    22 x cases of the 28 x cases have so far been linked to known outbreaks
    - the majority of them in aged care facilities

    The remaining 6 x cases are under investigation.

    3 x deaths were reported in the 24 hours to Tuesday.
    Victoria’s covid death toll to 766 (no breakdown as to with/of ?)

    The 3 x deaths include :
    • 1 x woman in her 70s
    • 1 x woman in her 90s
    • 1 x woman in her 100s,

    **all of which were linked to aged care.

    Andrews = epic fail on protection of the vulnerable and draconian lockdowns !

    Leave a comment:


  • OldManRiver
    replied
    The need for forethought remains as strong as ever.
    Sweden took a punt like the rest of us, and MAY have lucked out.
    The only country to show signs of forethought has been China, to our detriment.

    Leave a comment:


  • pk
    replied
    Sweden.JPG

    Leave a comment:


  • pk
    replied
    Originally posted by OldManRiver View Post
    2020 hindsight. Not saying its wrong, or unworthy. Just saying it is nowhere near as helpful as a little forethought.

    and Queensland
    - agreed, although i saw little-to-no evidence of ANY forethought (except perhaps Sweden ?)

    Leave a comment:


  • OldManRiver
    replied
    Originally posted by pk View Post
    This is the article from The Australian this morning (the above chart was included)
    - a little long but well worth the read !

    We shut up shop for a coronavirus that was unlikely to kill us
    “Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everybody gets busy on the proof.”
    ..... etc etc .....
    2020 hindsight. Not saying its wrong, or unworthy. Just saying it is nowhere near as helpful as a little forethought.
    Originally posted by 380EXCQLD View Post
    Get back to reality Victoria.
    and Queensland

    Leave a comment:


  • Tom68
    replied
    Originally posted by pk View Post
    The problem with that is, that chart shows the result with all the measures taken.

    There is no resulting chart for a sensible stategy for Covid19, since no sensible stategy was taken.

    Leave a comment:


  • pk
    replied
    This is the article from The Australian this morning (the above chart was included)
    - a little long but well worth the read !



    We shut up shop for a coronavirus that was unlikely to kill us

    “Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everybody gets busy on the proof.”

    John Kenneth Galbraith’s quip couldn’t be more apt right now, where the world’s political class and their cheer squads in the media and pockets of academia are trying to justify the extraordinary attack on civil liberties and economic freedom over a disease that’s like a severe flu in its health impact. They will need more than: “China said it worked”, “it was popular”, and “it feels as if lockdowns must work”.

    The aim of such blunt policies, enacted contrary to advice and without empirical support, has steadily shifted from “flattening the curve”, to suppression, and now, in Victoria, at least, “elimination”.

    Regardless, we shouldn’t have copied the policies of an increasingly totalitarian state on faith; many terrible and stupid things are popular, and science doesn’t care about feelings.

    In Sweden — a nation castigated mercilessly for taking sensible precautions rather than enforcing a China-style police state — total mortality has turned out to be much the same as previous years.

    It’s had no “second wave”, unlike other lockdown-prone European nations, lending support to the idea Swedes have developed some herd immunity, and are getting on with their lives.

    The modelling produced to justify Victoria’s stage-four lockdown that began on August 1, predicted the 14-day average of new cases would be “over 60 by mid-September” with a tough lockdown. It was 34 as of Monday, when 11 new cases were announced — the modelling was poor.

    As analysts at Bell Potter showed, the virus peaked just three days after the fourth stage began, which, given the incubation period, means the additional measures had nothing to do with the decline.

    Almost 1770 Belgian doctors and health professionals issued an open letter urging Belgium — in a second wave of about 1000 cases a day — against reimposing a lockdown. “If we compare the waves of infection in countries with strict lockdown policies to countries that did not impose lockdowns (Sweden, Iceland …), we see similar curves. There is no link,” they said on September 10.

    Never mind all that. Just as our medieval ancestors thought influenza was caused by the “influence” of the stars (hence the name), the decline in cases in Victoria will be attributed to curfews, lockdowns, and Victorians’ globally unique vigilance.

    There is no link between lockdowns and reduction in deaths, let alone a demonstration of causality, as multiple analyses in medical journal The Lancet and elsewhere have shown. The sun doesn’t rise in the morning because the rooster crows.

    Paris-based data scientist Ivan Debono published an insightful graph last week, putting the 960,000 global deaths from or with COVID-19, in context. You almost need a microscope to see the impact, given more than 60 million people, mostly aged, die each year.

    And Melbourne University’s vice-chancellor implied this week, in terms of quality-adjusted life years saved, the toll would be much less. “What is the value of a 90-year-old’s life versus the value of the continuing livelihood and happiness of a 25-year-old?’’ he bravely asked.

    The chart, anyway, is either a demonstration of our collective genius in snuffing out a very deadly virus — for the first time in history — or one of the coronavirus’s modest lethality. I am pretty sure for which explanation future historians will opt.

    Ultimately the tide of sanctimony and hysteria will go out leaving the facts, but in the meantime the economic and social destruction continues.

    The facts have changed but not the response. Why?

    Economics provides two ideas that help us understand how we ended up putting millions under house arrest: path dependency and public choice theory.

    If the virus had emerged in Sweden, Brazil, Japan or even Victoria, it is unlikely the world would have locked itself down in terror. History matters; China took the lead, we followed.

    The path you’re on depends how you started, however stupid it was in hindsight. For reasons of saving face and sheer inertia, governments cannot and do not re-optimise like computers might with the latest information each day, which leads to the second factor. Economists once thought politicians acted wholly in the public interest, their models assumed policies were carried out as if by a “benevolent dictator”.

    Nobel prize winner James Buchanan blew this naivety away in the 1970s, showing that bureaucracy and regulators often acted in their own interest or that of the industry they regulated (as the GFC well-illustrated).

    “Show me the incentives, and I’ll show you the outcome” quipped legendary investor Charlie Munger.

    The pandemic has given the political class an opportunity to increase its fame, power and relative income under the self-righteous banner of “saving lives”.

    Politicians, who know they’ll be accountable to the media only for pandemic deaths, do whatever is popular, such as close state borders, in order to be re-elected.

    All the costs have fallen on others, who had no place at the decision-making table.

    Imagine one slight tweak to this incentive structure whereby every politician and chief medical officer endured a 20 per cent pay cut for every day lockdown and restrictions were maintained. How long would it have lasted?

    Leave a comment:

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