This flu is Armageddon on our doorstep!

[Jakobi]

Ahh good to be back and have a couple of pages of banter to catch up on! Has anyone eaten the Sao yet?

[pk]

Oxford University Centre for Evidenced based Medicine is a good read.
Up to 80% are asymptomatic which makes the case numbers (and so the case fatality rate) a nonsense.
Just this week the WHO came out and said that they estimate 10% of the world population has been infected so the infection fatality rate is similar to a bad flu.

China:


In China, the CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17% for cases from 1 to 10 January) and reduced to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February.

Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Reported in (China CDC weekly). Update 21st March:

The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked around January 23rd to 26th, then began to decline up to February 11th. Most cases were aged 30 to 79 years of age (87%), 1% aged ≤ 9 years, 1% aged 10 to 19 years, and 3% 80 years or older.

The Case Fatality Rate was 2.3% (1023 deaths/44 672 confirmed cases).
Reported CFRs by age were

Age (deaths/cases)	CFR (95% CI)
≤ 9 years (0/416)	0%
10 to 19 years (1/549)	0.18% (0.03 to 1.02%)
20 to 49 years (63/19790)	0.32% (0.25% to 0.41%)
50 to 59 years (130/10,008)	1.3% (1.1% to 1.5%)
60 to 69 years (309/8583)	3.6% (3.2% to 4.0%)
70 to 79 years (312/3918)	8.0% (7.2% to 8.9%)
≥80 years (208/1408)	14.8% (13.0% to 16.7%)

Patients with comorbid conditions had much higher CFR rates.
Those with no comorbidites had a CFR of 0.9%. Critical cases had a CFR of 49%, no deaths occurred among those with mild or even severe symptoms.

• Critical cases: respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure.
• Severe: dyspnea, respiratory rate ≥30/min, oxygen sats ≤93%, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio <300, lung infiltrates >50% within 24–48 hrs

Limitation: some variables (i.e., comorbid condition and case severity) are not required fields in the Chinese CDC Infectious Disease Information System, some records have missing data.


> https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

[ggchris]

Ahh good to be back and have a couple of pages of banter to catch up on! Has anyone eaten the Sao yet?

Gluten intolerant. Along with a whole raft of other intolerance issues, not food related.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

[OldManRiver]

Ahh good to be back and have a couple of pages of banter to catch up on! Has anyone eaten the Sao yet?

OK Jake, a sign of how out of touch I am. Eaten the SAO? Bite the Biscuit? To die?
Certainly hope not.

[OldManRiver]

In China, the CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17% for cases from 1 to 10 January) and reduced to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February.

According to the virus book I read, this is typical of viruses - they become less virulent over time/generations/mutations.

[pk]

According to the virus book I read, this is typical of viruses - they become less virulent over time/generations/mutations.

yes, apparently the same in Sweden
Cases vs virulent activity/fatalities is nowhere near the initial outbreak

[OldManRiver]

yes, apparently the same in Sweden
Cases vs virulent activity/fatalities is nowhere near the initial outbreak

No less infectious though. Maybe more - I defnitely dont know. But its a bloody complex equation.

[pk]

No less infectious though. Maybe more - I defnitely dont know. But its a bloody complex equation.

Well this is also my concern.

The Countries that tried to supress the virus to the point of elimination have essentially postponed the initial (first ?) wave.
The virus has yet to 'do its thing'

The 'flatten the curve' followed by 'increasing health resources' and then protecting the vulnerable appears (on face value) the way to allow the virus to pass-through the population.
Managing rather than hiding in waiting again seems logical ?

I am still trying to make sense of this situation whilst sifting through the fear, panic and hyperbole . . .

[Tom68]

OK Jake, a sign of how out of touch I am. Eaten the SAO? Bite the Biscuit? To die?
Certainly hope not.

This was an 70s thing, Jake has interpreted a Circle Jerk the same way I have. Boys homes, standing around maybe a SAO, last one to come, (drop the e, replace the o with a u) eats the biscuit.

[Tom68]

The Countries that tried to supress the virus to the point of elimination have essentially postponed the initial (first ?) wave.
The virus has yet to 'do its thing'

The land of Oz has only had a ripple and only Victoria got a second ripple.
Maybe our population isn't big enough to get a wave.

[pk]

The land of Oz has only had a ripple and only Victoria got a second ripple.
Maybe our population isn't big enough to get a wave.

MAYBE . .

Maybe it is the size of the population v area v age v weather v culture v personal health & hygiene considerations v etc . . . .

Apparently you need to come in contact with it to develop antibodies ?

Also, seems to be a lot recover . . ?

[OldManRiver]

This was an 70s thing, Jake has interpreted a Circle Jerk the same way I have. Boys homes, standing around maybe a SAO, last one to come, (drop the e, replace the o with a u) eats the biscuit.

Well thats made my day worthwhile. I could tell ya somefin ..... but I wont.

The land of Oz has only had a ripple and only Victoria got a second ripple.
Maybe our population isn't big enough to get a wave.

I'd start with population density and the island/border factor.

[Jakobi]

Well thats made my day worthwhile. I could tell ya somefin ..... but I wont.

I'd start with population density and the island/border factor.

Hahah! You fellas! I don't think I want to know what you know..

Serious question here.. Who in this group has been tested and what was the outcome? I know I few people who've been swabbed here and there. Influenza and the good ol Rhinovirus have done/do the rounds. In saying that we haven't had a covid outbreak (reported). Don't know how as Chinese tourists were always here prior to the pandemic. Still seem to be meeting Victorians every other day who have either done the dodgy or been up on holidays and haven't gone home.

[Tom68]

Apparently you need to come in contact with it to develop antibodies ?

Covid19 specific yer, Nurse Dr John Campbell has done some research that suggest there's several helpful antibodies and genetics common to some, One was something about catching something from your Dog making Covid19 a less aggressive infection, not having Neanderthal genes helps and something about exposure to certain previous Corona Viruses gives some degree of immunity. He's thorough enough that there'd be some truth in all of it.

[Tom68]

Hahah! You fellas! I don't think I want to know what you know..

Serious question here.. Who in this group has been tested and what was the outcome? I know I few people who've been swabbed here and there. Influenza and the good ol Rhinovirus have done/do the rounds. In saying that we haven't had a covid outbreak (reported). Don't know how as Chinese tourists were always here prior to the pandemic. Still seem to be meeting Victorians every other day who have either done the dodgy or been up on holidays and haven't gone home.

I know a couple of hypochondriacs and one in a high risk business that have been tested at least once, they've pretty much had to bullshit to get tested, no symptoms equals not eligible for a test. No positives amongst them.

Only personally know one bloke that died with it and dementia.