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  • Originally posted by Spac View Post
    Badly flawed analysis.

    The entire article is trying to conflate confirmed cases and supposed/likely/estimated cases against a stationary mortality rate.
    Who writes that crap?

    It's easy to cut through the nonsense when you consider that over 41,000 Americans have died due to COVID since the 1st of March. Even the highest estimates of influenza deaths in that time gives a much lower number.
    History shows us that some people will believe just about anything if it supports their agenda
    I love dirtbikes!!

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    • Originally posted by Spac View Post
      Badly flawed analysis.
      Lets assume you are correct here.

      How about, for the statistically challenged, you specify in detail what data is needed to extrapolate the extent of asymtomatic infection in the community.

      I dont believe your saying random sample testing is useless. So what do they need to do the numbers, and what conclusions can and can't be drawn, and why?
      dr650se previous: dt175, ty175jc, alpina 350, ct110x, xr250y, ty250s, ec300, fr250r
      Its OK to be Human! - hopefully other precious monkeys wont be offended. #SheepToo
      ALL LIVES MATTER!

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      • Seven new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in Victoria in the past 24 hours, bringing the state’s total to 1,336.

        Tuesday’s new cases includes one person who has recently arrived from overseas, and was diagnosed in mandatory quarantine in a Melbourne hotel.

        The state’s death toll remains 15

        *no idea as to how many people actually have CV

        All modelling is 'best guess'
        Time and tide . .

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        • Test everyone. Multiple times.

          I bet that would cost a fraction of the 380 billion dollars they are lashing out to pay everyone.

          Cv19 is killing old people. That's a fact.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Pete40 View Post
            Test everyone. Multiple times.

            I bet that would cost a fraction of the 380 billion dollars they are lashing out to pay everyone.

            Cv19 is killing old people. That's a fact.
            Lots of things are killing old people - mainly age and 'natural causes'

            No doubt that CV is a conrtibutor - extent is still to be determined . . .
            Time and tide . .

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Pete40 View Post
              Test everyone. Multiple times.

              I bet that would cost a fraction of the 380 billion dollars they are lashing out to pay everyone.

              Cv19 is killing MOSTLY old people. That's a fact.
              I agree with this Pete. Problem being, we don't have, and are unlikely to have any time soon the resources to do this.
              I love dirtbikes!!

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              • Originally posted by OldManRiver View Post
                Lets assume you are correct here.

                How about, for the statistically challenged, you specify in detail what data is needed to extrapolate the extent of asymtomatic infection in the community.

                I dont believe your saying random sample testing is useless. So what do they need to do the numbers, and what conclusions can and can't be drawn, and why?

                The ratio of asymptomatic cases to mild-moderate symptomatic cases to critical cases to deaths does not change unless the healthcare system is overwhelmed.
                It is important to note that the ratio exists (unchanged) in reality, even if we do not know any of the values. And we do accurately know the three most important of the four values.

                The obsession with quantifying the least important number (asymptomatic cases) is confined to the ideological right, who are either using it as a tool of distraction, or are showing their lack of understanding of mathematics. Or possibly both.
                Beta 200RR

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                • Originally posted by Pete40 View Post
                  Test everyone. Multiple times.

                  I bet that would cost a fraction of the 380 billion dollars they are lashing out to pay everyone.

                  Cv19 is killing old people. That's a fact.
                  This has been a massive get-out-of-gaol-free card for the federal government. The economy was very clearly slowing down before COVID, before the bushfires.
                  Now they get to blame it all on COVID.

                  Funny how they spent 12 years banging on about how ineffective/evil stimulus is, and then immediately implemented the biggest stimulus package in our history at the first sign of a crisis.
                  Doubling the dole when many shops were closed says to me that they knew it was way overdue and were thankful for a politically acceptable reason to do so.
                  Beta 200RR

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                  • Originally posted by Spac View Post
                    The ratio of asymptomatic cases to mild-moderate symptomatic cases to critical cases to deaths does not change unless the healthcare system is overwhelmed.
                    Sorry Bro. I have no idea why you say the ratios are unchanged (unless the healthcare system is overwhelmed). To my simple mind those ratios are liable to change minute to minute.
                    And, its a bluddy shame that you can NEVER see beyond politics.
                    Originally posted by Spac View Post
                    Doubling the dole when many shops were closed says to me that they knew it was way overdue and were thankful for a politically acceptable reason to do so.
                    That much I agree with.

                    P.S. My "Planet of Viruses" book arrives tomoz, so watch it, instant expert here in a cupla days.
                    dr650se previous: dt175, ty175jc, alpina 350, ct110x, xr250y, ty250s, ec300, fr250r
                    Its OK to be Human! - hopefully other precious monkeys wont be offended. #SheepToo
                    ALL LIVES MATTER!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by OldManRiver View Post
                      P.S. My "Planet of Viruses" book arrives tomoz, so watch it, instant expert here in a cupla days.
                      Looking forward to your upcoming youtube series ^lol

                      ...any chance you've got a book on economics coming too?
                      Epidimiconomists are in high demand.

                      Comment


                      • More reports of people becoming re-infected, also long term damage to Heart Lungs and liver.....
                        Seems that even the bullet proof young and healthy, may become weakened over time.
                        Only "time" will tell.........
                        2015 V Strom 650

                        2004 KLR650 easyrider, for the longhaul

                        03 WR450 GONE

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                        • Originally posted by OldManRiver View Post
                          Sorry Bro. I have no idea why you say the ratios are unchanged (unless the healthcare system is overwhelmed). To my simple mind those ratios are liable to change minute to minute.
                          ???

                          For the sake of the argument, imagine Coronavirus had hit the human population in a time before modern healthcare but with perfect data collection and analysis:
                          1. A percentage of the population will become infected.
                          2. A percentage of the population will be infected but have no symptoms or mild/moderate symptoms.
                          3. A percentage of the population will become seriously ill.
                          4. A percentage of the population will die.

                          Imagine also, for the sake of the argument (and my ability to perform mental arithmetic), the numbers are:

                          A) A population of 10,000,000, with 50% becoming infected over time. That gives you 5,000,000 infected.
                          B) Of those 5,000,000, 80% will have moderate, mild or no symptoms. This leaves 4,000,000 people requiring no treatment.
                          C) The other 20% of the infected people will have serious symptoms - 1,000,000 who would require treatment if it existed.
                          D) Of that 20% with serious symptoms, 25% will die, or 250,000 people.
                          E) 250,000 deaths from a population of 10,000,000 is 2.5%.

                          The last point (E) is the most important one - how many people it will kill if left unaddressed.
                          It ultimately doesn't matter if 80% of the population or 5% of the population is infected, if 2.5% of the population dies from it in either case.

                          Where the ideologues demonstrate that they are innumerate and/or trying to confuse the population, is their obsession with the one unknown in all of that.
                          Here in the real world, we are rapidly learning what the death rate (number of deaths vs total population) actually is - obsessing over that largely irrelevant unknown, while also repeatedly, seamlessly switching between raw numbers, total percentages and percentages of infected people without providing qualification or explanation demonstrates innumeracy and/or deliberate obfuscation.

                          Either way, it makes it very clear that they are not people that can provide useful information.
                          Last edited by Spac; 21-04-2020, 12:08 PM.
                          Beta 200RR

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                          • We don't know the death rate per population until we stop it which may be never.
                            After 30 years of it most people will either have recieved a vaccination or have had their first infection when they were young and healthy enough to fight it, so the death rate will be extremely low, in the meantime deaths will go up and down for a variety of reasons.
                            .
                            Ignorance leads to confidence more often than knowledge does
                            .

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                            • I agree with Tom.
                              I think I understand Nathans position slightly better now, but I dont agree with it. Unfortunately I dont have the Maths to argue the point.
                              dr650se previous: dt175, ty175jc, alpina 350, ct110x, xr250y, ty250s, ec300, fr250r
                              Its OK to be Human! - hopefully other precious monkeys wont be offended. #SheepToo
                              ALL LIVES MATTER!

                              Comment


                              • It'll all be over soon according to this bloke.

                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys3CrUdxSGM

                                If it doesn't use fossil fuels then it's not a toy worth having.

                                Maico will rise again! !psm

                                The Chiko Roll - Health food of a nation.

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