This flu is Armageddon on our doorstep!

[normanator27]

The statement from the ABC is factually correct.
There has been a lot of talk about this topic - and (once again) not many answers.

There had been a bunch of assumptions made about immunity once you get it and recover. Now people are questioning the accuracy of those assumptions.

Based on what is actually known, it is entirely possible that it will be like the flu and you can get it over and over again.
Which is not such a cheery thought.

If it wasn't true,and i'm not saying that it wasn't as I can't be bothered verifying, but if it wasn't, having people believe it was might still be a good way in which to motivate people to behave a little longer when the feeling among many is that we've all but beaten this.

[daddyrat]

Forrest bought test kits, Palmer bought some random drug that is unlikely to help.

I think there’s some confusion about which rich mining magnate with political aspirations is which.

this! I got the rich guy wrong. sorry

[numroe]

Based on what is actually known, it is entirely possible that it will be like the flu and you can get it over and over again. Which is not such a cheery thought.

Yes, same as for the flu, some people's immune systems do not develop a strong antibody response after an initial recovery. Nothing new.

The same solution applies ... Seek herd immunity ASAP, while protecting and respecting the weak and fearful. Pretty simple really, if the public is educated correctly on what the plan is (or should have been).

Flattening the curve too much is a huge mistake with long term massive human cost. Strict lockdown with the same rules for all people delays covid-19 deaths and increases near-term deaths due to interruption of hospital resources and bookings and causes massive long term human cost. eg. health issues due to financial stress, unemployment, homeless numbers increasing, suicide, family violence, crime rate increases, etc. That's ignoring the reduction in living standards for the next 5 or 20 years due to significant economic hardship - which shortens lives as well.

Those countries which reach herd immunity will rebound way sooner than the rest.

The fear factor is not required. Covid19 deaths this year is now at 1/3rd of the deaths for a bad flu. Probably it'll exceed bad flu death counts later this year, but the solution is still the same.

We have doctors saying covid19 is the same as a bad flu and being censored for doing so, and we have seasoned epidemiologists explaining that lockdown and social distancing will only delay the inevitable.

Have a look at the curve for Sweden in this attached image. They have never locked down. They admit they've made some mistakes, but the solution is still the same. The recent sharp turn down in Sweden's curve is very significant!

You can do the research and learn the f-ups they did in NYC, and Italy and London. eg. far too many people freaked out and went to hospital and misuse of ventilators. Then the media gets a hold of the death counts and sends fear rates to the moon, just so they can get better ratings I suppose.

I suspect we (Aus) are close to a tipping point, where every extra week of lockdown could mean another year of economic pain which means human life cost. Our govt epidemic adviser admitted her team did not consider the human cost of economic shutdown in their modelling.

Our hospitals are empty. I feel like we have been lied to. 99% of Australians have no idea of how much worse life is going to be post Covid-19. First, we end 2019 with a very weak and fragile economy which was only positive growth due to immigration. Then tourism died, then the education industry, then mining exports, obviously immigration stopped, now the building industry is grinding to a halt, next comes the loan defaults and bankruptcies, then the property market collapse. It's only just getting started. And we all chose and agreed to do this?

Educate the public on a plan for the solution. No lockdown limbo crap waiting for a synthetic vaccine when we can all make one the usual way. No fear mongering. No moral police. Protect and respect the weak and fearful, while allowing it to spread at the fastest rate possible by those who have no fear. Then this virus will die. And hopefully, we are better prepared for the next one.

See also https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-la...irus-lockdown/

[normanator27]

Yes, same as for the flu, some people's immune systems do not develop a strong antibody response after an initial recovery. Nothing new.

The same solution applies ... Seek herd immunity ASAP, while protecting and respecting the weak and fearful. Pretty simple really, if the public is educated correctly on what the plan is (or should have been).

Flattening the curve too much is a huge mistake with long term massive human cost. Strict lockdown with the same rules for all people delays covid-19 deaths and increases near-term deaths due to interruption of hospital resources and bookings and causes massive long term human cost. eg. health issues due to financial stress, unemployment, homeless numbers increasing, suicide, family violence, crime rate increases, etc. That's ignoring the reduction in living standards for the next 5 or 20 years due to significant economic hardship - which shortens lives as well.

Those countries which reach herd immunity will rebound way sooner than the rest.

The fear factor is not required. Covid19 deaths this year is now at 1/3rd of the deaths for a bad flu. Probably it'll exceed bad flu death counts later this year, but the solution is still the same.

We have doctors saying covid19 is the same as a bad flu and being censored for doing so, and we have seasoned epidemiologists explaining that lockdown and social distancing will only delay the inevitable.

Have a look at the curve for Sweden in this attached image. They have never locked down. They admit they've made some mistakes, but the solution is still the same. The recent sharp turn down in Sweden's curve is very significant!

You can do the research and learn the f-ups they did in NYC, and Italy and London. eg. far too many people freaked out and went to hospital and misuse of ventilators. Then the media gets a hold of the death counts and sends fear rates to the moon, just so they can get better ratings I suppose.

I suspect we (Aus) are close to a tipping point, where every extra week of lockdown could mean another year of economic pain which means human life cost. Our govt epidemic adviser admitted her team did not consider the human cost of economic shutdown in their modelling.

Our hospitals are empty. I feel like we have been lied to. 99% of Australians have no idea of how much worse life is going to be post Covid-19. First, we end 2019 with a very weak and fragile economy which was only positive growth due to immigration. Then tourism died, then the education industry, then mining exports, obviously immigration stopped, now the building industry is grinding to a halt, next comes the loan defaults and bankruptcies, then the property market collapse. It's only just getting started. And we all chose and agreed to do this?

Educate the public on a plan for the solution. No lockdown limbo crap waiting for a synthetic vaccine when we can all make one the usual way. No fear mongering. No moral police. Protect and respect the weak and fearful, while allowing it to spread at the fastest rate possible by those who have no fear. Then this virus will die. And hopefully, we are better prepared for the next one.

See also https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-la...irus-lockdown/

Is it that simple though? There's the talk getting around now that getting it once doesn't make you immune as pointed out by Spac I think. IF that is true then herd immunity approach won't apply here......:speechles

Our hospitals aren't empty, they are rapidly filling again with all the other health issues that got put aside temporarily so that our hospitals were as best prepared as they could be with the resources available for the expected covid 19 tsunami, which is yet to arrive.

I don't think we were lied to per se, I think that our leaders took an approach to a situation that nobody had ever seen before and applied what they thought at the time was the best solution to save the maximum number of lives possible. History (which is still unfolding) may yet reveal that the approach taken was the wrong one (or not?), and thats ok too so long as we learn from those mistakes. But really, you can't be too overly critical of our leaders for putting lives before money, even if that approach proves to be misguided. I know I'll get shouted down by some for this, but it's what I think.

As a side note, you have cited Sweden as an example of perhaps of the way forward as have I a week or 2 back if you care to go back through the posts. The key point that I got from Sweden's approach is that the government took the approach they did based on a relationship of mutual respect and trust which exists between the Swedish government and it's citizens, a situation I could never see occurring here with our culture of belligerence to authority on most levels.

[Tom68]

Is it that simple though? There's the talk getting around now that getting it once doesn't make you immune as pointed out by Spac I think. IF that is true then herd immunity approach won't apply here......:speechles

If it doesn't work, then it's called thinning the herd.

[normanator27]

If it doesn't work, then it's called thinning the herd.

Imagine the scenes though of the worst hit areas like NYC, Spain, Italy being replayed world wide, all at once...... doesn't bear thinking about for me:speechles

[pk]

- just the stats ma'am, make of them what you will . .

How many people die and how many are born each year?
by Hannah Ritchie
September 11, 2019

The world population has grown rapidly, particularly over the past century: in 1900 there were fewer than 2 billion people on the planet; today there are 7.7 billion.

The change in the world population is determined by two metrics: the number of babies born, and the number of people dying.

How many are born each year?
In 2015, there were approximately 141 million births
– 44 million more than back in 1950

How many die each year?
In 2015 around 57 million people died.
The world population therefore increased by 84 million in that year (that is an increase of 1.14%).

'Currently' ~ 231,000 deaths attributed to CV
Using the 57M number above translates into 0.4% of the total
To date then approximately 99.6% of deaths are not CV related . .

All emotion aside, would anyone care to extrapolate the numbers into a projected total and timeframe ?

[OldManRiver]

The same solution applies ... Seek herd immunity ASAP

Numroe, you seem like a fairly well informed fellow. Please tell us how herd immunity can work under the circumstances of "recovered" sufferers having little to no immunity from reinfection. To my simple mind, herd immunity only has two components - herd and immunity. If there is no immunity, then some of the herd is dying, some of the herd is spreading - just like the rest of us.
How can herd immunity work, where immunity is compromised?

[pk]

politic speak . .

Leaked audio reveals Qld Premier’s school fears

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says she can’t “turn the switch back on” and allow schools to start up full-time because she could be blamed for children who fall sick with coronavirus.

“I just have to stress to everyone, we cannot rush this, we have to take our time because if there is a breakout in a school, I’ll tell you one thing, they’re not going to be blaming Scott Morrison,” she said.
“They’ll be blaming the State Government, they’ll be blaming myself and (education) Minister Grace Grace.”

Ms Palaszczuk made the comments in a town hall-style telephone meeting with Labor branch members.
She said she was also concerned about how schools would manage social distancing during drop-off and pick-up times.

[OldManRiver]

politic speak . .

Now theres a compassionate woman.

[normanator27]

Now theres a compassionate woman.

A poor choice of words at best.

[pk]

A poor choice of words at best.

Perhaps - but behind them lay the true sentiment ?

[DV8]

Perhaps - but behind them lay the true sentiment ?

The true sentiment is the one spoken by the Teachers Union, the ones pulling the strings in this case.
Roll on October 31.

[normanator27]

The true sentiment is the one spoken by the Teachers Union, the ones pulling the strings in this case.
Roll on October 31.

I believe they need to pull their heads in and take some ownership in the role that they are required to play in things moving forward from here.

[380EXCQLD]

I believe they need to pull their heads in and take some ownership in the role that they are required to play in things moving forward from here.

From where I stand, the teachers seem to be enjoying a paid holiday without chewing up their leave entitlements.
We pulled our kids out early, but with virtually no cases locally since Easter, sent them back this week.
That lasted 2 days.
Teachers are doing sfa, taxpayer funded child minding would be a more suitable description.
A couple of them are putting effort into the remote learning, but plenty are not.
Principle told our 15 yr old that he'd prefer they all stayed home.
This isn't helping those of us still working and doesn't give the kids much encouragement.

I'm chewing into my leave to make sure my kids get some sort of education, while teachers are being paid to ride the gravy train.

At least Annastacia has her own arse covered, fck the rest of us.